Inflation has been stubbornly high for some time, but it is finally beginning to ease as supply chain disruptions fade and interest rates rise. However, Federal Reserve officials are now expressing concern that prices could begin to rise again because labor markets are so tight. If wages continue to grow at their current rate, inflation will remain well above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation goal. This is assuming that productivity grows at a rate of 1% to 1.5% per year.
The U.S. economy ended the year on a strong note in 2022, despite concerns that growth may slow down in the coming year. While there are some uncertainties about the future, the overall outlook remains positive. With continued effort and cooperation, the economy is expected to maintain its momentum and continue to grow.
This year has been more optimistic for bankers, executives and politicians, but only in comparison to how pessimistic they were feeling a few months ago. Just like the markets, they have had a bit of a rally, but are still down compared to this time last year. They are also puzzled by the same uncertainties that trouble investors. A contrarian would say that the mildly upbeat mood is a sign that the rally of about 10% in the S&P 500 since September is no more than a bear-market bounce that won’t last.
European markets edged higher on Friday as stocks attempted to rebound from the previous day's selloff. The outlook for monetary policy remained firmly in focus. The Stoxx 600 index was up 0.3% in early afternoon trading, with retail stocks leading the way with a 1.1% gain. Most sectors were in positive territory, although gains were modest overall.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has increased its projection for oil consumption in 2021 by nearly 200,000 barrels per day, bringing the total to 1.9 million barrels per day. This would result in an average of 101.7 million barrels per day, which is higher than before the pandemic and a record amount.