While 5G Adoption Remains Low, Telecom Bosses Say 6G Will Launch In 2030

There is a great deal of speculation that 6G, the next generation of mobile internet following 5G, will launch in 2030, according to executives at some of the world's biggest telecommunications and technology firms.

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But the industry's top bosses also warned that the industry should not create too much hype around the technology to avoid confusing consumers in the future. The announcement comes as companies are also considering how to make a return on the multi-billion dollar investments they have made over the past few years in 5G technology.

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SK Telecom's chief development officer, Ha Min Yong, told Trade Algo last week that the rollout of 5G for the company has yet to be complete. “I don’t think it’s mature enough to be talking seriously about 6G at this point… at least not yet.”

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There was a lot of discussion about 6G at Mobile World Congress, the world’s largest mobile industry trade show, held in Barcelona last week, with global telecommunications companies sharing their reflections on the latest technology.

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There has been a slow adoption of 5G

Chinese, South Korean, and American mobile operators have all begun rolling out 5G services in the first quarter of 2019. This technology represents the next generation of mobile internet after 4G, enabling superfast internet speeds for mobile users.

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Although consumer penetration is low, there is still a long way to go. Strategy Analytics reports that only one in seven people worldwide use 5G smartphones.

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Despite this, 5G has been positioned by the telecoms industry not just as a product for consumers to get faster download speeds, but as a network that could underpin the development of new technologies such as driverless cars and unmanned air taxis. This is due to the fact that it has lower latency than 4G. This means that there is a substantial reduction in the amount of time it takes for devices to communicate with each other, which is very important in situations where data needs to be delivered quickly.

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Carriers have struggled to see a return on their investment in 5G networks after hundreds of billions of dollars have been invested. There may be a real opportunity to monetize 5G in the near future, according to analysts.

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“The adoption of 5G is accelerating in most countries where it has been deployed (including India, which is constructing 5G networks rapidly), but consumer subscribers are only one metric of take-up – ultimately, enterprise markets and industrial segments are where much of the potential lies,” Richard Webb, director of network infrastructure at CCS Insight, wrote Trade Algo.

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What is the point of talking about 6G in the industry?

In order for telecommunications networks to function properly, standards are required. Basically, these are technical rules that are designed to define how technology works and its interoperability across the globe, and they are, at their best, globally accepted. It is the ability for two or more systems to be interoperable that is referred to as interoperability.

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The process of coming up with and finalizing these standards takes several years and involves a number of players, from companies and academic institutions to industry bodies and associations. This is the reason why the industry is thinking about it so much at the moment.

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Various standards-setting bodies, such as 3GPP, which contributed to the development of 5G, have already begun working on 6G standards. However, it is still in the early stages of development at the moment.

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“I think for us in terms of 6G, we are still at the research stage at the moment,” Telenor CEO, Sigve Brekke, said in an interview with Trade Algo last week.

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A number of telecom executives who spoke to Trade Algo said the key to achieving 5G deployment would be to focus on 5G deployment at the same time as 6G research is being conducted. This is due to the fact that talk of 6G is likely to confuse consumers and there is still a lot to be accomplished with 5G, in the opinion of BT's technology chief Howard Watson.

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“I think the industry needs to stop confusing customers by talking about Gs because the next thing you'll ask me is when 6G will arrive. I don't see any use cases we can't accomplish with 5G or its immediate evolutions," Watson told Trade Algo last week.

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“Let's not confuse consumers and enterprises with this new thing called 6G.”

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The majority of 5G networks that are currently operating were built on the basis of the technology and equipment used in 4G. There is however now a push among operators to roll out what they call standalone 5G networks. This is a technology that will be independent of the 4G network and promises to be able to realize the full potential of 5G using this technology.

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A higher amount of software will also power 5G networks, enabling them to manage data traffic more efficiently.

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“Before 6G, there is one more step that must be taken, and that is the so-called 5G advanced, which is going to be available on the market within a few years,” said Pekka Lundmark, CEO of Nokia, in an interview with Trade Algo last week.

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It is expected that this would improve the experience of technology like augmented and virtual reality, as well as support the use of drones in a variety of ways.

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“The wait for 6G is unnecessary,” Lundmark said.

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So what is 6G?

At this point, since 6G standards have not been set, there isn't really a clear idea of what the technology will look like at all since it hasn't been set yet.

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BT's CTO Watson said: "As operators, it is important to start defining what it will be and what it won't be. This work has just begun, so it's still too early to say what it will be."

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Additionally, 6G will bring enhanced cybersecurity and artificial intelligence to the mobile network.

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Nokia CEO Lundmark said that the 6G network would "act as one big large sensor" that could detect the size, speed, and direction of moving objects. As a result of this feature, it would be possible for automated factories and driverless cars to be created in the future.

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6G in 2030

Nokia's CEO predicted 6G would be available by 2030, among other executives.

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As a senior vice president in Intel's Network and Edge Group, Nick McKeown told Trade Algo that 6G will also be rolled out in 2030, with standards being set a few years before the release of 6G.

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“There is a lot of work being done on these standards at the moment, so the standards work is underway. Then there's a certain amount of, you know, figuring out how to test and probe different technologies, and a bit of jockeying for position in terms of what the chosen technology should be," McKeown said in an interview last week.

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BT's CTO has said that the next generation of mobile networks will typically be rolled out around the time of the Olympic games. According to him, 6G is expected to make its debut around the time of the 2032 Olympic Games in Brisbane, Australia.

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It is predicted that the first 6G-enabled smartphone will be launched in 2029, according to Neil Mawston, executive director at market research firm Strategy Analytics.

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“The 6G race is underway,” Mawston stated.

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