Turmoil Shreds High-Grade Bond Sale Plans as Zero Deal Days Rise

U.S. companies are projected to issue nearly $1 trillion in high-grade bonds this year. But as trade tensions and tariff changes spark market volatility, the timing of these debt sales has become increasingly difficult to navigate.

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Market data compiled by PitchBook as of April 9 show that there have already been 22 days this year with no investment-grade bond issuance—a figure that ranks among the highest in the past decade, even exceeding the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. The only time with more zero-deal days was during the regional banking crisis and Credit Suisse’s collapse in 2023.

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This uncertain environment has led to dramatic day-to-day shifts in bond issuance. According to PitchBook, the average daily change in the amount of high-grade bonds issued in the first quarter was about $10.3 billion—marking the biggest swings since at least 2011 and about 40% more volatile than the typical first-quarter average.

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Such market instability is limiting opportunities for companies to issue debt when conditions are ideal. In many cases, businesses may be compelled to move forward with sales despite market headwinds. Investors, meanwhile, can face an overwhelming number of deals all at once, making it harder to scrutinize each offering thoroughly.

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Take Paychex Inc., for example. The company launched its first-ever bond sale last week, raising $4.2 billion at a time when yields were rising and trade policies were highly uncertain. Paychex had limited flexibility in terms of timing, as it needed to fund its acquisition of Paycor HCM Inc., which finalized on Monday. With earnings expected in late June, the company likely preferred to avoid issuing bonds closer to its reporting date. Paychex declined to comment on the transaction.

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As of the end of 2024, blue-chip companies were facing $1.02 trillion in bond maturities for 2025, a high figure driven by the wave of low-interest debt taken on during the pandemic. So far this year, companies have sold approximately $580 billion in high-grade bonds for both refinancing and other purposes, down about 1% compared to the same time last year.

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Earlier projections had anticipated around $1.5 trillion in total bond sales for the year. But with yields fluctuating and tariff announcements rocking the market, strategists expect the current choppiness to persist.

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“We need an active year because of the massive maturity wall,” said Maureen O’Connor, global head of high-grade debt syndicate at Wells Fargo & Co. “The more volatile days we face, the more crowded the good days become for issuers trying to take advantage of favorable conditions.”

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Many of the no-issuance days occurred after President Donald Trump increased tariffs on dozens of countries, causing investor anxiety and prompting many companies to delay bond offerings. Although Trump later paused many of those tariffs for 90 days, the uncertainty had already left its mark on the credit markets. Even before the tariff details were made public in early April, trade-related jitters had affected market behavior.

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On March 10, for instance, the S&P 500 dropped 2.7%, prompting most corporate bond issuers to wait. In the two days following that decline, companies rushed to sell $30 billion in bonds—an amount typically spread out over an entire week.

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“Before the tariff headlines started dominating, we had a long period—maybe 15 to 18 months—of calm in the markets,” said Kyle Stegemeyer, head of investment-grade debt capital markets at U.S. Bancorp. “During that stretch, issuers could go to market when and where they wanted, with flexibility on spreads. Now, that’s no longer the case.”

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In this environment, syndicate bankers are advising clients to issue bonds even on busy days when many companies are active, rather than wait for conditions to improve. “It’s better to be one of many on a good day than the sole deal on a bad one,” O’Connor explained. “Investors have proven they can handle multiple offerings in a single session.”

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Credit market volatility had remained relatively subdued until late March, when Trump began promoting his reciprocal tariff plan. Since then, high-grade bond spreads have widened by 17 basis points, experiencing the largest one-day rise—and fall—since March 2023. These sharp moves have made it harder for syndicate desks to predict the best days for launching new deals.

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“There’s more economic data, heightened inflation concerns, and constant tariff updates to digest,” said Marc Baigneres, global co-head of investment-grade finance at JPMorgan. “That likely means fewer windows for actual bond issuance.”

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As the 90-day tariff pause unfolds, some experts believe it could restore a measure of calm, encouraging issuers to return to the market. Stegemeyer of U.S. Bank expects more activity in May and June as companies seek to refinance upcoming maturities. Richard Testa of MUFG Securities summed it up: “In today’s climate, the devil you know is often better than the one you don’t. And the second half of 2025 looks increasingly uncertain.”

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