This Year's Bulls Are More Determined After A Strong First Quarter

There has been another uptrend in futures prices this morning. This is the fifth day in a row that the market has been up. S&P 500 stocks are up over 300 points, roughly 8% since the financial crisis peaked three weeks ago when the market was at its lowest point.

‍

This year, markets are not just optimistic that the cycle of Fed rate hikes will end with a stop sometime soon. There is also optimism with regard to the exceptionally strong first quarter and the implications for stocks for the remainder of the year that this will have.

‍

Many bulls shared their market history pieces over the weekend about what happens when the S&P 500 rises in January and the first quarter, particularly when it is up 7% or more. This is relatively rare (17 times in the past 73 years).

‍

A decisive year is almost always followed by a strong year for the remainder of the year, which is unsurprising.

‍

Following more than a 7% gain in the first quarter, the S&P 500 returns to its previous levels

‍

This is amazing. There is an average increase of 23% in the S&P 500 over the entire year whenever it advances by 7 percent or more in the first quarter.

‍

There's no doubt that the bulls are ebullient when you consider that April is the strongest month for the Dow so it's little wonder they are so upbeat. There is no need to worry about whether April means the end of the fabled "best six months" strategy and the beginning of the "sell in May" strategy.

‍

A month from now, I will tell you about that story.

‍

Spring shoots in April

‍

The Dow Industrials have had their best month in a long time: average 1.9% advance

‍

Between 2006 and 2021, there has been a 16-year upward trend

‍

The "best six months" strategy has come to an end