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There Is A Weak Forecast For Netflix's DVDs.‍

April 19, 2023
minute read

As the streaming video company forecast a disappointing outlook for the second quarter of its fiscal year, Netflix shares fell in late trading Tuesday as a result.

Despite the fact that the company added a net 1.75 million net new subscribers in the quarter, lower than analysts' expectations, the company earned profits and revenues in the quarter that were largely in line with Wall Street expectations.

A half hour later, Netflix stock hit a three-year low after the company shared its earnings report, which caused the company's share price to plummet.

In the quarter ended April 29, Netflix reported a revenue of $8.17 billion, an increase of 3.7%, and a profit of $2.88 per share. As predicted by Wall Street estimates, the company had projected $8.2 billion in revenues, and earnings of $2.82 billion. The company no longer provides a specific forecast for subscriber growth since the Wall Street consensus had predicted $8.2 billion in revenue and $2.86 billion in earnings.

In the June quarter, Netflix expects revenues of $8.24 billion, up 3.4%, and profits of $2.84 per share; that figure is below Wall Street's old projection of $8.5 billion and $3.07 a share. In a statement, the company stated that paid net additions in the quarter were expected to be "roughly similar" to the first quarter, but that would represent 3.7 million fewer than what the Street expected.

Nevertheless, Netflix said it would buy back 1.2 million shares for $400 million in the quarter, and it said that a forecast of $3.5 billion for free cash flow for the entire year has been raised from a forecast of at least $3 billion. It has been stated that Netflix is planning to increase its share repurchases throughout 2023.

Also, Netflix announced that it would be launching its paid sharing program in the U.S. in the second quarter as part of its crackdown on password sharing. A company said that it is "pleased with the results" of the paid sharing that it launched in four countries in the first quarter-Canada, New Zealand, Portugal, and Spain-and is happy with the results. As of the end of the quarter, the company noted that its global average revenue per membership was down 1% from the prior quarter. In an attempt to increase its subscription base in Canada, the company has noted that its base has increased as a result of the introduction of paid sharing.

There are reportedly plans for the paid sharing launch to be moved from the first quarter to the second quarter and that this will help to achieve a "better outcome for both our members and our business."

According to Netflix, operating income for the recent quarter exceeded the company's forecast of $1.6 billion, largely as a result of ongoing expense management, timing of hiring and content expenditures. According to the company's estimates, the company's operating income will reach $1.6 billion in the second quarter, with an operating margin that has declined from 20% to 19% as a result of the dollar's appreciation against other currencies.

According to Netflix, its long-term financial objectives remain the same as they have always been—it is aiming for double-digit revenue growth, increased operating margins, and growing free cash flow in the long run. With the introduction of the paid sharing program and the increasing growth of the advertising business, the company anticipates that constant currency revenue growth will accelerate during the second half of the year. According to Netflix, the operating margin for the full year will still be between 18% and 20 percent.

It is also expected that the company's spend on content in 2024 will remain flat at $17 billion compared to the $17 billion in 2023.

The company pointed out that Netflix had recently cut prices in some markets by 20 percent to 60% in December 2021, which led to better engagement in the country and an increase in currency neutral revenue by 24% in 2022, which is a reflection of recent price cuts in some markets. This encouraged the company to cut prices in 116 countries in the first quarter of 2022, resulting in a total revenue of under 5% for the year.

A Netflix official recently stated that as a result of the introduction of an ad-supported subscription tier, Netflix is pleased with the company’s progress on all key metrics, including member experience, advertising value, and incremental business contribution. In the company’s words, engagement with the ads has been well beyond the expectations of the company. Additionally, Netflix reported that ad-supported tiers are now 95% content parity with ad-free plans around the world.

On the company's earnings call, co-CEO Ted Sarandos answered a question about the possibility of a strike by the Writer's Guild of America, stating that although Netflix does not want a strike, it has tons of movies and TV shows coming up, which should keep viewers happy with regards to content for the next few months. A technical glitch, which prevented the company from successfully live streaming a special edition of the reality show Love is Blind, was blamed on an unexpected software upgrade, which resulted in a technical glitch that prevented the company from successfully live streaming the reunion edition.

As part of its announcement today, Netflix announced that it is exiting the DVD-by-mail service entirely by September of this year.

On September 29th, 2023, the company announced that the last red envelope would be sent. Our members have enjoyed movie nights for the past 25 years, and it has been an honor to have you as a part of this incredible journey, including this final season of red envelopes. Thank you for being a part of our amazing journey.

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Eric Ng
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Eric Ng
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John Liu
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