The Top Stocks to Play for a Still Healthy Consumer in 2025, According to Goldman Sachs

The outlook for consumer spending in 2025 appears promising, according to a recent note from Goldman Sachs, which highlights several stocks that could see significant gains as a result.

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Goldman’s analysts predict that the U.S. consumer will remain resilient, driven by ongoing growth in disposable personal income, even as the pace of that growth slows and elevated interest rates begin to decline. “We forecast a still robust consumer as disposable personal income continues to grow, albeit at a slower rate, and as elevated interest rates ease,” the analysts wrote.

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The firm projects that growth in essential expenditures will slow to 2.3% in 2025, compared to 3.6% in 2024. This deceleration is attributed to falling energy costs, a slowdown in health-care spending growth, and food inflation remaining in the low single digits.

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Ultimately, Goldman expects these factors to lead to a 4.9% increase in discretionary cash flow for U.S. consumers in 2025, up from a 4.2% rise in 2024. This should create a favorable environment for discretionary spending and higher savings levels, the analysts added.

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With this positive consumer outlook, Goldman identified several stocks it believes are well-positioned to benefit in the new year.

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Wingstop

Wingstop was highlighted as a stock with strong growth potential, despite lingering investor concerns about its ability to drive positive same-store sales growth in 2025. Goldman noted that the restaurant chain has significant opportunities to boost brand awareness, thanks in part to increased advertising spending and a new multi-year partnership with the NBA, which complements its NFL-focused marketing efforts.

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Additionally, Wingstop maintains a competitive edge in digital innovation. The company boasts over 45 million unique users in its customer database, with digital sales now accounting for approximately 70% of total revenue. The recent rollout of its proprietary tech platform, MyWingstop, is expected to enhance personalization for digital customers.

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Goldman’s optimistic view aligns with the majority of Wall Street analysts, 15 out of 25 of whom have a strong buy or buy rating on the stock, according to LSEG data. The stock’s average price target of nearly $371 represents a potential upside of 35%.

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Although Wingstop gained nearly 11% in 2024, the stock has recently faced challenges, falling over 16% in the past month and more than 30% in the past three months. Still, Goldman sees room for recovery.

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Dick’s Sporting Goods

Dick’s Sporting Goods was another standout on Goldman’s list. The stock surged over 55% in 2024, significantly outperforming the broader market. Goldman believes it still has room to grow, citing the potential for multiple expansion as operating income increases through initiatives like its GameChanger app. This platform offers features such as scorekeeping and live video streaming for teams and fans in the U.S.

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The analysts also noted that Dick’s could benefit from the shift of digital advertising dollars toward retail. The development of a retail media network, similar to those of other major retailers, could provide incremental growth opportunities, particularly given its higher-margin profile.

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However, Wall Street is divided on the stock. Of the 29 analysts covering Dick’s, 14 rate it as a strong buy or buy, while another 14 rate it as a hold, per LSEG data. The consensus price target suggests a modest 4% upside potential.

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Chipotle

Chipotle, which posted a 32% gain in 2024, has seen a notable pullback from its highs, offering what Goldman describes as a “compelling” buying opportunity. The analysts believe that Chipotle stands to benefit significantly if the return-to-office trend gains momentum, alongside other fast-casual chains like Sweetgreen.

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Goldman also highlighted the company’s leadership team as a key asset. CEO Scott Boatwright and CFO Adam Rymer, both of whom have extensive prior experience at Chipotle, are expected to build on operational improvements initiated under former CEO Brian Niccol. These efforts include process enhancements and investments in technology.

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Wall Street is largely optimistic about Chipotle, with 26 out of 36 analysts rating it a strong buy or buy, according to LSEG data. The stock’s average price target of $67 implies a potential upside of more than 19%.

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Conclusion

Goldman Sachs’ analysts are optimistic about the consumer landscape in 2025, predicting that slowing essential expenditure growth, combined with rising discretionary cash flow, will create favorable conditions for several stocks. Wingstop, Dick’s Sporting Goods, and Chipotle stand out as key beneficiaries, each with unique catalysts for growth. While Wall Street sentiment varies, Goldman sees significant upside potential in these names as the year unfolds.

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