There have been a number of stocks that haven't risen with the stock market this year, so some of them might be good picks to consider in the near future.
It has gained just over 6% in value over the past year for the Russell 1000 index RUI +0.85%, which tracks the 1,000 largest U.S. companies by market value. In the long run, the market has been driven by the expectation that the Federal Reserve will soon stop raising interest rates as inflation continues to decline, which is the main reason for the market's action.
The rally has sparked a lot of interest among those who have yet to get in on it; however, there are still plenty of stocks that have not exactly surged. A total return of less than 3% is posted by Invesco Russell 1000 Equal Weight Exchange-Traded Fund (EQAL) for the year to date. As a result of using this fund, every stock in the index is weighted equally, thereby removing the outsized impact of large market value stocks like Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT), which both put up double-digit gains in the last twelve months. We're not saying that many stocks haven't done well lately-it's just that the ones that show strong fundamentals are likely to do well going forward.
Therefore, Evercore strategists identified stocks that haven't gained much and could be good buys. While analysts have revised their earnings per share estimates up this year for stocks on the Russell 1000 index that have underperformed the standard market-cap weighted index, even though the index's aggregate EPS forecast has been revised down by a few percent for 2023, they found stocks that have underperformed the standard market-cap weighted index. Since the beginning of 2022, the stocks on the screen must also have short interest, or the percentage of shares outstanding that are shorted. Any time a stock shows signs of strength, short sellers often buy their shares back.
The company has Caterpillar CAT -0.22% (CAT) on its screen. Analysts revised their 2023 earnings estimates up by about 4% this year, despite the stock is down about 7% this year. During the first eight months of 2022, it has experienced the 80th percentile of short interest in its range.
The profit outlook is fairly positive due to several factors. With higher prices on its machinery, the company has been able to offset higher costs, keeping profit margins stable and profit dollars growing. In terms of gross margin, FactSet reports the company remained around 30% last year. The $63 billion in sales this year would represent an increase of about 6% over last year. In a conversation with Goldman Sachs in March, the company said strong pricing is helping sales, but even if prices slow down along with broader inflation, the company said the backlog of commercial construction projects and solar turbines should keep sales going. From just over 13% last year, the operating margin should expand to about 16% this year due to sales growth.
One example is Under Armour UAA +1.22% (UAA). EPS projections have been revised up about 3.2%, but it's down just over 9% this year. There is a 75th percentile of short interest in the last few weeks.
There has been a stabilization in earnings. From their highest levels last year, analysts' estimates of 2023 EPS have fallen more than 40% to their lowest levels so far this year. Because Nike (NKE) has been able to compete with the company, new products have been marked down at lower prices, which has hurt margins. With a gross margin of 46%, analysts expect sales to increase modestly to about $6 billion this year.
There is also a screen with Halliburton (HAL). Stock prices have fallen almost 15% this year, but EPS estimates are up about 2.8% and short interest are at its highest level ever.
Despite EPS forecasts up about 2.6% and short interest in the 100th percentile, Albemarle ALB +0.51% (ALB) stock is down about 5% for the year.
Here are some stocks to check out.
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