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The New York Fed reports a rebound in factory activity in April

April 18, 2023
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According to a report issued on Monday by the New York Federal Reserve (NYFR), New York State manufacturing activity increased in April for the first time in five months, as measures of new orders and shipments increased by unusually large amounts.

According to the Chicago Fed's "Empire State" index, which measures current business conditions in the region, the index rose 35.4 points to a reading of 10.8 this month, compared with a reading of -18.0 expected by Trade Algo.

It is an encouraging sign that the New York manufacturing sector is growing, as a reading above zero indicates that the sector has been growing in recent months. This activity is a sign of optimism for the manufacturing industry in general, which has been depressed by rising interest rates and the shift from goods to services.

After shrinking at a 3.1% pace between October and December of the previous year, manufacturing output increased at a 0.3% annualized rate in the first quarter, according to figures released by the Federal Reserve last Friday.

The manufacturing industry is believed to be experiencing a recession by economists. For the first time since 2009, all the subcomponents of ISM's measure for measuring national manufacturing activity have dropped below the 50 threshold for the fifth straight month, indicating a decline in national manufacturing activity for five straight months.

In the New Fed survey, the gauge of new orders has increased 46.8 points to 25.1 during March, while the shipment measures have increased at a faster rate of 37.3 points to 23.9 during March. In spite of this, manufacturing employment has continued to drop in the last few months, while factory gate inflation has slowed.

However, as a measure of businesses' attitude towards the future, the survey's measure of future business conditions has risen to 6.6 from 2.9 in March, indicating that businesses are not expecting a significant improvement in the next six months.

The capital spending index grew by 3.2 points to 16.5, while the technology spending index fell by 10.3 from 13.3 in March, providing a picture of modest growth in new orders and shipments, as well as increasing employment.

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Adan Harris
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Eric Ng
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John Liu
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Bryan Curtis
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Adan Harris
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Cathy Hills
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