Stocks That Will Be Hurt the Most From Trump’s New Tariffs

President Donald Trump’s plan to impose tariffs on key U.S. trading partners—Mexico, Canada, and China—poses a significant challenge for American businesses reliant on imports and manufacturing from these countries.

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While analysts have differing views on the overall economic impact, many expect the tariffs to slow U.S. growth and push inflation higher.

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Goldman Sachs projects that broad tariffs on Canada and Mexico—excluding China from its calculations—could raise core inflation by 0.7% and trim gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.4%.

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The new tariffs are likely to hit companies that depend on imports and supply chains spread across these regions.

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One major sector at risk is fashion retail. Many U.S. apparel brands source a significant portion of their products from Mexico and China, making them vulnerable to cost increases.

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Boot Barn, a retailer specializing in Western-style clothing and cowboy boots, is one such company expected to feel the effects. According to Bank of America analyst Christopher Nardone, 30% of Boot Barn’s production comes from China, while another 25% is sourced from Mexico. The tariffs could squeeze margins and raise costs for both the company and its customers.

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The auto industry is also facing serious headwinds. While major U.S. automakers have production facilities in the country, many rely on plants in Mexico and Canada to produce a substantial share of their vehicles. The six top-selling car manufacturers all have at least one facility in Mexico, which could mean higher costs and supply chain disruptions.

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Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, highlighted these concerns during an interview on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street. He described the Midwest as “the Saudi Arabia of the auto industry” and noted that automakers are growing increasingly anxious about the potential impact of tariffs on their operations.

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“When I speak with top auto executives, they are deeply worried about how these tariffs might affect pricing and profit margins,” Goolsbee said. “We need to see how this plays out before we can confidently assess the overall economy.”

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John Murphy, an analyst at Bank of America, specifically pointed to Ford and General Motors as two companies that will face major difficulties.

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“Ford and GM manufacture between 15% and 20% of their vehicles in Canada and 30% to 35% in Mexico,” Murphy noted in a recent report. “If these tariffs remain in place for a prolonged period, they could place immense strain on the entire automotive supply chain.”

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According to his estimates, a 25% tariff on vehicle imports from Mexico and Canada could result in an additional $50 billion in costs for the industry.

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The beverage sector is another area at risk. Mexico accounts for 83% of beer imports into the U.S. and nearly half of all imported spirits by volume, according to Bank of America analyst Brian Callen. “Tariffs spell trouble for the alcohol industry,” Callen wrote in a Monday note, adding that beer and tequila production are particularly vulnerable.

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Two companies that could take a hit are Constellation Brands and Diageo, both of which depend heavily on imported alcoholic beverages.

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Bernstein analyst Nadine Sarwat singled out Constellation Brands as the U.S. company most at risk from Trump’s tariffs. Constellation owns the licensing rights to the Corona and Modelo brands in the U.S., and nearly 90% of its profits come from premium Mexican beer imports.

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Beyond supply chain disruptions, Sarwat warned that tariffs could contribute to broader inflationary pressures, making it even harder for some consumers to keep up with rising costs.

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“The widespread implementation of import tariffs could lead to stronger inflation in the U.S., putting additional financial strain on already struggling consumers, particularly in lower-income groups,” she explained.

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With key industries facing higher costs and shrinking margins, the economic impact of Trump’s tariff policies could be significant, affecting both businesses and consumers alike.

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