Space Investments Are The New Kingmakers

New orbiting habitats are being constructed by a number of American businesses to replace the ailing International Space Station. At this week's FAA space conference, there was a lot of discussion about NASA's role in launching the budding market.

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To set the scene, let's say that the ISS will be decommissioned at the end of this decade. By the time it occurs, four private space stations will be competing to become online:

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• Northrop Grumman and Axiom Space are developing independently.

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• Along with Airbus, Voyager Space, and its affiliate Nanoracks are working on "Starlab."

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• A cooperative project between Sierra Space and Blue Origin is called "Orbital Reef."

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When it comes to choosing which of these programs will be successful, NASA is the ultimate arbiter. The agency's funding was essential in helping SpaceX, Northrop Grumman, and Boeing develops their crew and cargo spacecraft over the past ten years. It has been giving money to the four space station projects lately. NASA's technological know-how and experience running a research facility in orbit are also priceless assets.

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When it comes to how their biggest client, the U.S. government, should be involved, space executives don't share the same opinion. These other viewpoints were presented last week during a panel discussion with NASA leadership. Mary Lynne Dittmar, the chief government officer for Axiom, began her remarks by strongly criticizing NASA's procurement approach:

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"We're worried that having four rivals in the game for a very long time will saturate the market if there even is one. Because everyone in low Earth orbit is essentially pursuing the same verticals, we are diminishing business potential, according to Dittmar. "And we're concerned that if there aren't really clear benchmarks for down selection and consolidation, we'll actually increase the time it takes to complete things.

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Such an opinion may not come as a surprise given that Axiom was the first to secure a NASA contract for these stations and has made the most advancements in their development. Since the first person at the table, the corporation naturally wishes to prevent the pie from being cut up too much.

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The most forthright refutation came from Voyager Executive Vice President of Government Affairs Eric Stallmer:

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Each project must "go out and raise funds to do this," according to Stallmer because NASA will only be supporting a small portion of the creation of these space stations.

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Initially, NASA anticipates that the Commercial LEO Destinations program will only make up a small portion of its annual budget, somewhere between $200 million and $400 million. The success of these stations depends on either that number increasing significantly or businesses finding the investment somewhere else.

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