In the Midst of the Tariff Turmoil, Here Are Some Potential Safe Haven Stock Picks

As uncertainty grows in global markets, investors are increasingly turning to large retail chains like Costco and Walmart as defensive plays amid rising fears that the bond market could become the next front in the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China.

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Victoria Greene, chief investment officer at G-Squared Private Wealth, noted that big-box retailers offer a relative sense of stability in what has become a turbulent economic climate. She pointed to Costco and Walmart as the closest options to a “safe haven” in the current environment—even though these companies aren't entirely immune to the effects of the recently imposed 104% tariffs on Chinese imports.

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“These companies are better positioned than most to handle the disruption,” Greene explained. “No matter what happens in the broader economy, people will still need to purchase food, clothing, and other essential items. Both Costco and Walmart are leaders in offering good value and affordability.”

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She emphasized that both retailers have strong grocery businesses, which helps make them more resilient in the face of economic shocks. Their dominance in this category, she said, gives them a defensive edge that sets them apart from many other companies that may struggle with shifting global trade dynamics.

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The recent decision by the Trump administration to implement sweeping 104% tariffs on imports from China has upended previous expectations about the future course of trade policy. Former Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez, who had once predicted that President Trump would scale back or even eliminate tariffs by mid-2025, admitted that the situation had taken an unexpected and dramatic turn.

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“We’re now entering territory that no one thought we’d see,” Gutierrez remarked. “We need to understand that this isn’t over—the President is pushing even harder. As extreme as things already are, there’s likely more ahead.”

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Gutierrez warned that the long-term consequences of this aggressive trade stance could be significant, especially if the tariffs remain in place for an extended period. “The real issue now is duration. The longer this continues, the greater the damage to the global economy, to businesses, and ultimately to consumers,” he said.

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While attention remains focused on retail and tariffs, eyes are also turning to the bond market as a potential flashpoint in the trade war. The U.S. Treasury is preparing for two major debt auctions this week: a $39 billion sale of 10-year notes on Wednesday and a $22 billion sale of 30-year bonds on Thursday. These auctions are seen as important indicators of investor appetite for U.S. government debt, particularly from foreign buyers.

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David Zervos, chief market strategist at Jefferies, cautioned that weakening demand from overseas investors could be an early sign of a new front opening in the economic conflict. “This could get very complicated, very quickly,” he said. “If other nations start using their holdings of U.S. financial assets as leverage in the trade war, we’re in for a rough ride.”

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Zervos explained that countries with large reserves of U.S. Treasuries—such as China—may choose to scale back their purchases or even offload some of their holdings as a form of retaliation. This, he warned, would put additional pressure on the bond market, potentially driving yields higher and causing ripple effects across the financial system.

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For now, investors appear to be taking refuge in the reliable fundamentals of consumer staples and essentials, which is why names like Costco and Walmart have gained renewed interest. These retailers benefit from scale, pricing power, and supply chain efficiency—advantages that make them particularly attractive when economic conditions become unstable.

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Still, the broader implications of the trade war and its influence on financial markets remain difficult to predict. The possibility that it could extend beyond goods and services to impact the bond market introduces a new level of complexity. If that scenario plays out, the Federal Reserve may find itself under additional pressure to step in and stabilize conditions with emergency actions.

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In the meantime, investors are attempting to navigate a landscape filled with uncertainty—hedging against potential volatility by prioritizing defensive sectors while staying alert to shifting geopolitical and macroeconomic risks. With bond auctions and trade developments unfolding simultaneously, the coming days are likely to be crucial in determining the next phase of this rapidly evolving economic conflict.

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