Here Are the Stocks With the Most to Lose as Trade Tensions Simmer

Investors are increasingly concerned about the potential impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on imported goods, which could affect companies across multiple sectors.

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Within his first month back in office, Trump imposed a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports. In response, China introduced retaliatory tariffs of up to 15% on certain U.S. goods, including coal and liquefied natural gas. Beyond China, Trump has also targeted U.S. neighbors Canada and Mexico. In February, his administration announced a 25% tariff on imports from both countries, though these duties were temporarily paused for a month.

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Despite the delay, there is little indication that the administration will reverse course. Even European imports may soon face similar scrutiny, as Trump signed a memorandum outlining a plan for “reciprocal tariffs.”

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Billionaire investor Steve Cohen expressed concern about the economic implications of these tariffs. “Tariffs cannot be positive, okay? I mean, it’s a tax,” Cohen remarked. He suggested that while the current policy shift may only last a year or so, the market could be due for a significant correction, as the best gains may already be behind us.

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To identify companies most vulnerable to these tariffs, CNBC reviewed data from Goldman Sachs. The analysis focused on businesses with substantial revenue exposure to Latin America, the Asia-Pacific region, and Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA).

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AES Corp., a renewable energy company, leads the list with approximately 53% of its revenue coming from these regions. The company’s stock has suffered, losing over a third of its value over the past year.

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American Airlines is also exposed, deriving around 14% of its revenue from Latin America. However, Bank of America analyst Andrew Didora downplayed the risk, noting that only a small portion of this revenue comes from Mexico. The bulk originates from long-haul flights to South America, including Brazil and Caribbean vacation spots. Didora argued that tariffs themselves are unlikely to significantly impact passenger airlines.

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Instead, he suggested that currency fluctuations resulting from tariffs could influence consumer travel patterns. Didora maintains a neutral rating on American Airlines with a price target of $20—about 31% above the stock’s recent closing price.

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Among companies heavily reliant on EMEA, Booking Holdings ranks the highest, with nearly 80% of its revenue tied to the region. Despite this exposure, the company’s stock has performed well, gaining more than 33% over the past six months following stronger-than-expected earnings. In contrast, APA Corp., which derives 59% of its revenue from EMEA through hydrocarbon exploration, has struggled, losing 18% over the same period.

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Another notable company on the list is Fortinet, a cybersecurity firm that generates nearly 40% of its revenue from EMEA. Despite the high regional exposure, TD Cowen analyst Shaul Eyal believes Fortinet is relatively insulated from the effects of tariffs. He emphasized that cybersecurity is a critical industry and one of the few bipartisan concerns, which may shield these companies from economic headwinds.

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Furthermore, because cybersecurity firms primarily serve enterprises rather than direct consumers, they are less vulnerable to tariff-related disruptions. Fortinet’s stock has performed well, rising more than 16% since the start of the year.

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In the Asia-Pacific region, Las Vegas Sands stands out with 100% of its revenue coming from Macao. This exposure stems from the company’s decision to sell its Las Vegas properties to private equity in 2021. Despite concerns about tariffs, Jefferies analyst David Katz remains optimistic, stating that there is no evidence to suggest that Las Vegas Sands will experience a revenue decline.

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He pointed out that the company has strong relationships with both Macao and Chinese authorities and generates substantial tax revenue for the region. Katz upgraded his rating on the stock to a “buy” in January, raising his price target from $60 to $69—nearly 57% above its recent closing price. However, shares of Las Vegas Sands have declined 18% over the past 12 months.

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Other companies with significant revenue exposure to the Asia-Pacific region include Wynn Resorts at 47%, Corning at 51%, and Teradyne at 70%. These businesses could face increased risks if tariff tensions escalate further.

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As the Trump administration continues to pursue aggressive tariff policies, companies with substantial international revenue remain vulnerable. While some analysts argue that the effects may be limited in specific sectors like cybersecurity and airlines, others warn that prolonged trade disputes could lead to broader economic uncertainty and market corrections. Investors are closely watching developments to gauge the long-term impact on global businesses.

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