Elon Musk is devising a $10 trillion plan to eliminate fossil fuels – and save $4 trillion

There will be a $10 trillion investment needed to transform the world into a cleaner energy system, but continuing to rely on fossil fuels would cost about $14 trillion, according to Elon Musk, if we continue to burn fossil fuels.

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Tesla Inc. has stated in its Master Plan Part 3 published Thursday that a massive build-up of solar-panel factories and metal refineries is needed within the next 20 years to provide renewable-power generation and electricity storage capacity that is necessary for the global economy to be powered entirely with carbon-free energy.

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During the investor day last month, Musk briefly discussed his vision for a world without fossil fuels and the white paper outlines the specifics of Musk's vision for a world without fossil fuels. “Earth will transition to a sustainable energy economy,” Musk said during the event in Austin, Texas. "It will happen in your lifetime."

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Among Tesla's visions of the future are upgraded grids that use wind and solar power, a global network of battery farms and hydrogen caverns to store energy, the retooling of heavy industries like steel and cement-making, and heat pumps used to warm or cool homes and businesses.

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Tesla argues that the alternative option - continuing to produce oil, coal, and natural gas - will be much more expensive in 2022, with the total cost of the program over the next two decades estimated to be around $14 trillion.

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Musk's vision for a global energy system consists of about 30,000 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity and 240,000 gigawatt hours of storage batteries for storing renewable energy. In 2021, the renewable energy sector is projected to have a capacity of 3,214 gigawatts, while the stationary energy storage sector is forecast to have 1,432 gigawatt hours of capacity by the end of 2030. Tesla and other clean tech companies like them would benefit greatly from such a change.

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Although Musk argues that the $10 trillion investment cost of creating a cleaner world is high, he argues it is just a fraction of the $100 trillion global economy at the moment, and absolutely doable when spread over a two-decade period.

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"It is estimated that it will be 0.5% of the global economy in 20 years," he said to investors last month. "Thus, this is not a very large number."

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There would be a major boom in metals demand around the world if Musk's scenario came to fruition. Tesla predicts that in order to produce the nickel, lithium, copper, and other materials that are needed for batteries and clean-energy equipment, it would be necessary to spend $502 billion on mining capital expenditures as well as $662 billion on refining.

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It is estimated that, at peak levels, the world would need to dig up 3.3 gigatons - or 3.3 billion metric tons - of earth each and every year in order to obtain the necessary metals to make the transition to a cleaner energy source. There is some evidence to suggest that Tesla's theory that the total mass of solar cells could be reduced if aluminum could be substituted for copper because aluminum has a much higher ore grade than copper. Even so, the company concluded, it would still be a lot less than the 15.5 gigatons of fossil fuels that are currently extracted each year.

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Also, there is little possibility that the world will exhaust its supply of needed metals in the near future since only a fraction of the current resources are needed and a higher need will encourage explorers to look for new deposits as the market grows.

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With the advent of recycling in 2040, the metals supply will start to be replaced meaningfully by recycled metals, as old batteries, solar panels, and wind turbines will begin to be harvested and used again. Besides copper, other materials will also be phased out or minimized in the future. For instance, artificial graphite will be used in batteries instead of silver. In addition, rare earths will be eliminated from wind turbines altogether.

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“Electrified and sustainable energy future is technically feasible, and it requires less investment and less material extraction compared to continuing today's unsustainable energy economy as it currently exists,” Tesla said in a statement.